Monthly Archive for October, 2007

Latest research from the CSIRO in Australia has found indications that the ability for the Earth to absorb our extra carbon dioxide output has slowed markedly. Meaning that for each tonne of CO2 released 50Kg more stays in the atmosphere (than 50 years ago). The research also suggests that this figure is on the rise. (sciencenetworkWA)

Climate modelling has always assumed that the rate of CO2 absorption was constant; this recent information will mean that these models will need to be changed and re-run, a process which may take as long as five years. All our current estimates of the impact of Human CO2 production could be predicting much more positive outcomes than will actually occur and much longer timelines of change than we will actually experience. It would mean that this is no longer something that we will pass on to our grand children, but in fact we will pass it along to our selves.

The most significant impact of this information is not how little time we may have but in fact how much needs to be done. Our estimates of what needs to be done to avoid catastrophic change are now understated, that rather than a need to reduce by factors of 40-60% we would in fact need to reduce by 95% our current CO2 emissions. As I type this I can hear gasps from across the board. That is not possible. How can I do that, how can we do that?

If we want a high probability of avoiding crossing dangerous, let alone catastrophic heating thresholds, of 2-3 or more degrees, then we need to limit CO2-equivalent concentrations to 450-500 parts per million.

“We may already be at around 450ppm CO2. This implies, at our current and building rate of emissions and decreasing rate of natural offsets, required global cuts of 60 to 80 per cent by 2050 (with considerable reductions by 2020-2030), which for Australia, means greater than 95 per cent cuts if we are to take an equitable per capita share of the burden.”

Professor Barry Brook, director of Adelaide University’s Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability

But where does the responsibility lie for making these changes? I suggest that this is the greatest and most urgent call to action for people across the board. Working with the old data the Stern report concluded that the economic cost alone of doing nothing to prevent Greenhouse related climate change was much higher than the cost of taking measures now to minimise the impact. Because the developed world is all about economics at present there have been no significant reports into the effect of climate change on our lifestyle, but surely this would have to change as well as our bank balances.

If we apply Pascal’s Wager to the case of climate change, even with correction for infinites and different values, there can be little doubt that it is time for us all to make this a key in our decisions and activities. So what can we do?

We need to make decisions for our selves that reduce our impacts.
We need to make decisions at work that reduce our business impact.
We need to make climate change top of mind for our election choice.
We need to petition political and business leaders to make significant climate change part of their way of thinking and acting.
We need to be encouraging friends and family to take this issue seriously.